The problem of low housing demand in inner city = areas

From: Subject: The problem of low housing demand in inner city areas Date: Tue, 7 Mar 2006 20:35:19 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0015_01C64226.A6959850" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2180 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C64226.A6959850 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.jrf.org.uk/knowledge/findings/housing/519.asp The problem of low housing demand in inner city = areas

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May = 1999 - Ref=20 519
The problem of low housing demand in = inner city=20 areas=20

In = some inner city=20 areas there is virtually no demand for housing. Anne Power = and=20 Katharine Mumford of the LSE, in a detailed study of such=20 neighbourhoods, found that the reasons were more to do with = severe=20 poverty and joblessness within the neighbourhoods than the = quality=20 of the housing. Intensive inputs on many fronts are helping = to hold=20 the conditions. Their study found:

Good quality, modernised = homes are=20 being abandoned in some inner city neighbourhoods. House = prices=20 have fallen, in some cases to zero, and some blocks and = streets=20 are being demolished, including new housing. Demolition of = empty=20 properties has not generally stemmed the tide of = abandonment.=20 Whole areas have virtually no demand for housing.

Britain's major cities = have been=20 losing population since the turn of the century. = Manchester and=20 Newcastle, the two cities studied, have lost a fifth of = their=20 population since 1961. Depopulation has paralleled severe = job=20 losses, mainly in manufacturing. Job losses have hit = low-skilled=20 men particularly harshly. Long-term unemployment in inner = cities=20 is chronic.

Council housing dominates = in the low=20 demand areas studied, but all tenures are affected. Very = few=20 tenants have become owners under the Right-to-Buy. = Low-cost=20 owner-occupation outside the city is often a more = attractive and=20 cheaper option for those in work.

Low demand has generated = falling=20 school rolls, loss of confidence in the area, a vacuum in = social=20 control, anti-social behaviour and intense fear of = crime.

Many regeneration = initiatives have=20 been tried - intensive management, proactive policing, = resident=20 involvement. These help hold conditions. Resilience and = vitality=20 co-exist with acute decline.

A fightback has developed = involving=20 local leaders, innovative pro-city strategies, and new = urban=20 initiatives. Obsolete old buildings are being converted = into=20 attractive apartments and new high density developments = are in=20 demand, attracting working people back into cities.

Background
This study = aims to:=20 uncover and explain those events that are combining to cause = the=20 abandonment of urban neighbourhoods; describe the struggle = of those=20 living through the experience; uncover and assess attempted = remedies=20 and their impact on conditions and trends.

The = problems are=20 at three levels:

acute problems at city = level;=20
extreme problems at = neighbourhood=20 level;=20
complete abandonment in = the very worst=20 pockets of the most difficult areas.

City=20 problems
The main focus is on Newcastle = and=20 Manchester, two cities experiencing long-run decline. Like = other=20 large cities, they are adversely hit both by the loss of key = industries and by more general counter-urban trends. The = North is=20 suffering most from the problems of abandonment and low = demand.=20 Across the country there is also changing demand for social = housing,=20 leading to higher turnover and more difficult-to-let = property. The=20 result is intense problems in cities and poor=20 neighbourhoods.

Between 1971 and 1996, = Manchester lost 22=20 per cent and Newcastle 16 per cent of its population:

Inner areas lost more = people than=20 outer areas;=20
Unpopular neighbourhoods = lost more=20 than the city as a whole;=20
There were serious job = losses in the=20 inner cities;=20
Male jobs did much worse = than=20 female;=20
The loss of manufacturing = jobs was far=20 above average.

The exodus slowed in the = 1990s and may=20 reverse. But the rapid losses continued in the extreme=20 areas.

The cities experience = concentrated=20 multiple deprivation, which is far more intense in the inner = neighbourhoods. Concentrated poverty is, according to = reports from=20 both cities, the single biggest explanatory factor in = neighbourhood=20 decline. All the neighbourhoods are part of much larger = areas of=20 severe deprivation. Lack of work is a major factor. Double = the=20 proportion of the working age population is not working, = studying or=20 training compared with the national average (Table = 1).

Since the mid-1980s = waiting-lists for=20 council housing have fallen dramatically in both cities and = continue=20 to fall. There is virtually no waiting time for housing in = the=20 poorest neighbourhoods. Both cities have now opened their=20 allocations and are advertising = nationally.

Extreme = neighbourhoods
Four=20 neighbourhoods were studied in detail. One in each city = shows acute=20 symptoms of abandonment:

Streets with a majority of = houses=20 empty;=20
Demolition sites scattered = throughout=20 the area;=20
Empty property across the=20 neighbourhood;=20
Falling property = values;=20
Intense demand problems in = all=20 property types, all tenures and all parts of the = neighbourhood.=20 This means too few people wanting to live in those=20 properties.

In the other two = neighbourhoods,=20 conditions have not plummeted to such a low point and there = is more=20 ground for hope that the situation can be stabilised or=20 reversed.

The neighbourhoods share many = characteristics with unpopular and difficult-to-manage urban = areas=20 all over the country, including high demand cities like = London.=20 There is an intense hierarchy of popular and unpopular = areas. The=20 least popular suffer high levels of empty property, high = turnover,=20 some abandonment and demolition due to low demand. But there = is a=20 broad distinction between low demand in economically = prosperous=20 cities and regions such as the South East and low demand in = cities=20 and regions suffering long-term structural decline such as = the=20 North.

In most cities, including = Manchester and=20 Newcastle, there is nearly double the national proportion of = council=20 and housing association stock and much lower levels of=20 owner-occupation. This skewed ownership pattern is far more = extreme=20 in the deprived neighbourhoods. Right-to-Buy sales are = extremely=20 low. This underlines the poverty of the people and the low = value=20 attached to the areas.

The turnover of population is = extremely=20 high in council housing, particularly in the neighbourhoods = studied.=20 But turnover affects all tenures. If turnover moves above a = certain=20 level, it can become unmanageable. The turnover rate in = council=20 housing was between 20 and 50 per cent. Figure 1 shows the = vicious=20 circle that this creates.

Housing associations have = some very=20 attractive, small-scale, high quality developments tucked = into the=20 four areas which are experiencing low demand; they are = 'poaching'=20 tenants from older but often renovated council housing or = simply=20 finding properties unlettable. Some residents actively = campaigned=20 against housing association development whilst, in other = parts,=20 residents supported or even initiated development. But = housing=20 associations are now demolishing unlettable, unsellable=20 property.

Incipient = abandonment:=20 the worst pockets
Both cities reported a = swift,=20 sudden and unexpected loss of demand in the last few years. = One in=20 six properties are empty in the neighbourhoods, many more in = some=20 pockets.

The boarded-up properties = can belong=20 to the local authority, a local housing association, a = private=20 landlord, an owner-occupier - abandonment is affecting all = tenures;=20
The semi-abandoned streets = or blocks=20 include Victorian terraces, 1930s council cottages, = post-war=20 houses, modern housing association developments less than = 10 years=20 old, small blocks of sheltered flats, 1960s and '70s = purpose-built=20 estates - all property types are involved;=20
The streets with = boarded-up properties=20 are not on the whole badly maintained, or unappealing. = They often=20 contain attractive, small-scale, well-built houses with = gardens.=20 Transferred to an inner London context many of the = properties=20 would be 'gentrified';=20
Some Victorian terraces = are solid,=20 attractive and renovated, but the backs are a jumble of=20 out-houses, high walls and rubbish-strewn alleys - ugly, = insecure=20 and long out-dated. No way has been found of turning these = yards=20 and alleys into secure, joined-up gardens;=20
Many individual houses are = still=20 attractive but the disorderly neighbourhood environment is = an=20 active deterrent;=20
There are frequent = discussions in the=20 city councils about demolition - the destabilising effect = on the=20 community is intense.

Both cities are regularly = demolishing=20 abandoned property. Demolition of specific unpopular blocks = and=20 blighted property has sometimes increased the popularity of=20 surrounding houses. But in some instances, demolition has = fuelled=20 the problem by signalling a general lack of confidence. An=20 atmosphere of uncertainty about the future of the area gives = signals=20 of zero value and zero demand, thereby deterring would-be=20 applicants. Many demolition decisions are being made in = response to=20 immediate neighbourhood conditions without a clear overall = plan or=20 strategy or a full appraisal of the options. Other nearby = streets=20 then often start to show the same symptoms. Currently some=20 demolition proposals are provoking objections even where = levels of=20 abandonment are high. Remaining residents often want to hold = on.

The speed with which streets = or blocks=20 are shifting from being relatively well-occupied to nearly = half=20 empty is alarming. This creates instability and a reduction = in=20 informal social controls, leaving a vacuum which eventually = tips a=20 highly localised low demand area into rapid = abandonment.

The=20 challenge
In sum, there has been a = collapse in=20 housing demand within the neighbourhoods:

Social landlords are = operating in=20 direct competition with each other;=20
Landlords use the '100 per = cent=20 benefit system' to facilitate the movement of a = diminishing number=20 of tenants around surplus stock;=20
Private landlords are = often willing to=20 rehouse evicted tenants as long as the rent is = guaranteed;=20
Private landlords = speculate around=20 demolition decisions, buying up property for little in the = hope of=20 high rent from temporary lettings, before Compulsory = Purchase=20 Orders;=20
Local authorities and = police are=20 struggling to enforce basic standards and reduce = crime.=20

Crime, particularly violent = crime, is a=20 serious problem. But proactive policing has made significant = in-roads through co-ordinated action with = residents.

Most schools in these = neighbourhoods have=20 falling rolls, surplus places and high pupil turnover. Free = school=20 meals - a clear measure of family poverty - are sometimes = four times=20 the national rate. In spite of this, schools occasionally = excel -=20 achieving standards just above the national = average.

Low demand has many negative = impacts on=20 those living and working in the areas, but a fightback often = develops including the following features:

The emergence of local = leaders;=20
Service innovation and = improved=20 co-ordination;=20
Experimental working = between police,=20 housing and residents;=20
Attempts at marketing the = housing and=20 area;=20
Improved security, for = example the use=20 of concierges, wardens;=20
The development of = longer-term=20 strategies.

Inner neighbourhoods offer = many positive=20 assets which encourage more stable residents to stay and may = lead to=20 a renaissance:

Good quality = housing;=20
Proximity to city centre = and good=20 transport links;=20
Locally based = services;=20
Regeneration = programmes;=20
Gradual break-up of large = council=20 estates and transfer to new social landlords;=20
New proposals for = neighbourhood=20 management;=20
People-based = approaches;=20
Some private investment = and city=20 centre renewal.

Cities are under great = pressure but there=20 is real potential for repopulating inner areas:

Positive measures are = already in=20 train;=20
Universal forms of support = - such as=20 education, police and health services - underpin social=20 cohesion;=20
Marketing social housing = to a wide=20 band of the population raises its value and increases = demand in=20 some circumstances;=20
Regeneration projects are = attracting=20 'urban pioneers' back into centre cities. They may = gradually=20 spread into the increasingly empty inner = neighbourhoods;=20
Existing residents can be = encouraged=20 to stay and rebuild conditions providing an anchor for = city=20 rebirth;=20
Higher population = densities support=20 more services and create the street life that makes urban=20 neighbourhoods attractive. Many more smaller households = can=20 increase the density of city populations;=20
Pro-active policing helps = restore=20 confidence, contain violence and reduce fear. Policing = requires=20 many channels of communication, local support, clear = ground rules=20 and strong community links.

Policy=20 implications
In the end, urban = neighbourhoods=20 need an over-arching structure for managing conditions and=20 orchestrating the constant changes:

Low-skilled residents need = intensive=20 support and strong links to employers to help them move = into new=20 jobs;=20
Incentives for brownfield = development=20 and recycling buildings need to be stronger than the lure = of=20 greenfield sites;=20
A pro-city stance depends = on=20 meticulous environmental care and maintenance, cheap, easy = public=20 transport, better city schools, more secure = neighbourhoods.=20

The researchers conclude that = it is not=20 inevitable that inner city areas will continue to lose = people, lose=20 control, and lose viability. It is possible to make cities = work. The=20 future of our environment, our communities and our crowded = country=20 depends on saving what is a huge, wasting asset. The = neighbourhoods=20 where the study found such acute decline may become the = urban=20 centres of tomorrow.

About the=20 study
The four inner city neighbourhoods = studied=20 in detail contained approximately 16,000 households in = total. The=20 study involved interviews with 104 staff working in the main = local=20 services, and 24 residents representatives in the two = cities. A=20 further 33 people from local authorities and housing = associations=20 across the country were interviewed. In addition, the study = included=20 direct observation, an analysis of press reports, local = newsletters,=20 photographs, street counts of empty property, and collection = of=20 available facts on the areas and the cities from a wide = range of=20 sources including the census, council reports and = monitoring,=20 government records, other research and national=20 information.

How to get = further=20 information
The full report, The = slow=20 death of great cities? Urban abandonment or urban = renaissance=20 by Anne Power and Katharine Mumford, is published for the = Foundation=20 by YPS (ISBN 1 902633 11 3, price =A316.95 plus =A32 = p&p)

Click on the 'order = report' icon in=20 the left margin to order online.=20

Bac= k=20 to top

Privacy = policy |=20 Terms and = conditions |=20 Accessibility=20 statement

=A9 Joseph Rowntree Foundation=20 2005

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